Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Couldn't Have Said It Better

Marc Fisher on his Raw Fisher blog, concluding a riff on the ability of Virginia legislators to drift from libertarian to dictatorial citing the marriage amendment as an example: "Sadly, the legislators in Richmond act not according to any set of logical principles, but according to their own drifting and kneejerk conglomerations of bias, whim and momentary passions."

And, for some, I would add to bias, whim and passion their mistaken (?check Craddock, Black, Marrs, now Staton) belief that certain votes are "required" to get reelected even if they don't personally believe in what they are voting for.

Stephen Carter in his book "Integrity" describes unintegrity as doing something that you know to be wrong and argues that lack of consistency can be a hallmark of lack of integrity.

Shannon Valentine won a special election in Falwell's home town although she was attacked for making clear that she opposes the current proposed marriage amendment because it goes too far. She was clear and consistent and voters confirmed that they liked her authenticity.

Something to think about.

Fisher is not the only blogger to express doubts about the marriage amendment... see

I'm Not Emeril

Raising Kaine

Virginia Centrist


Madisonian at Sic Semper Tyrannis


South of the James

I'm sure there are more....

Perhaps we could have a whole blog carnival limited to posts on the marriage amendment ....

Bacon's Rebellion: "Blogging on the Hustings"

Here's Jim Bacon's take on the Marc Fisher piece on Virginia bloggers...

Bacon's Rebellion: "Blogging on the Hustings"

Bloggers Examined; Found Interesting

Washington Post Columnist, Marc Fisher examines the Virginia political blogosphere in the February/March American Journalism Review. In "Blogging on the Hustings," Fisher describes Virginia's political bloggers as "cacophonous" and "significant." He's right on both accounts.

We're a noisy bunch, mostly civil, but not always. And, many among us have contributed significantly to the art and war of politics.

For my part, I'm flattered to be quoted ... okay about being the only woman quoted but not so sure how I feel about being the designated "old" voice in the crowd, though.

Waldo has a good commentary on the commentary up on his blog. His conclusion: we have reason to be proud of being in the Virginia political blogosphere.

I think he's right.

Monday, January 23, 2006

Standing Up Against Discrimination in Public Employment

Here is the text of Senator Louise Lucas' floor speech about SB 700 (on which she and Senator Mamie Locke are co-chief patrons), the bill to end discrimination against state and local employees (including teachers) based on race, gender, national origin, religion, disability, veteran status, etc and sexual orientation:

In 1970, Governor Linwood Holton established a tradition that our chief executives have followed since; his first official act as Governor was the issuance of an executive order promising state employees equal opportunity and protection from discrimination in the workplace.

35 years later, Governor Warner concluded his term by signing an executive order extending this protection to discrimination based on sexual orientation -- a promise of opportunity continued in Governor Kaine’s first executive order on Equal Opportunity issued the day he was sworn in as Virginia’s 70th Governor – a promise also extended by Governor Kaine’s order to Virginia’s veterans.

Despite this long history of executive action, this legislature has never acted to incorporate in the Code of Virginia an explicit and comprehensive ban on discrimination in public employment. Private companies seeking to contract with the Commonwealth are required by law not to discriminate in employment. Constitutional officers are prohibited by law from discriminating in employment. Localities have permission to adopt anti-discrimination ordinances applicable to private employers but are not required by state law to guarantee their employees a workplace free of discrimination. School divisions and localities are required to afford employees the right to grieve discrimination, but are not affirmatively prohibited from discriminating.

It is time for legislative action. We can start by adopting the language in Governor Warner’s budget that will protect state employees from discrimination. But we need to go beyond that.

It is time for this legislature to make the Commonwealth’s equal opportunity policy clear and applicable equally to all public employees.

No state, local or public school employee should have reason to doubt our commitment to equal opportunity in employment for all regardless of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, pregnancy, childbirth or related conditions, age, marital status, disability, sexual orientation, or veteran status.

That is why Senator Locke and I will introduce today a bill that compliments and builds on Warner’s and Kaine’s executive actions and makes equal opportunity a matter of legislative enactment as well as executive action.

And, yes, this bill would include sexual orientation in our statement of the Commonwealth’s nondiscrimination policy. Protecting Virginia’s gay, lesbian, bi-sexual and transgender public employees from discrimination is not a radical idea.

 We are far behind private sector employers in adopting such a nondiscrimination policy.

 Jerry Falwell has said that protection from employment and housing discrimination is not a special right but a basic human right.

 A poll by a bi-partisan polling team recently found that, even among Virginia voters who would vote for a marriage amendment, 86% said gays and lesbians should have the right to work for the government and 63% said that they should have the right to teach in public schools.

 And, 24 of the 40 Senators in this body and 60 of the members of the body at the other end of the hall have said that they don’t discriminate hiring in their offices.

We invite you to join us in making equal opportunity in employment the law for all Virginia public employees.


So far, 9 Senators (including Locke and Lucas) have signed on.

If your Senator is not on the list, call the Senator and tell him or her you'd like to see his or her name on the list of co-patrons for SB 700.

If we can't convince them to be sensible when it comes to the so-called marriage amendment, perhaps we can convince them to do what's right when it comes to employment discrimination.

As Senator Lucas says, there's nothing "radical" about it.

Saturday, December 31, 2005

The Definition of Juvenile

What do college freshmen who sit outside the cafeteria line and hold up rating cards for young women as they exit the line with their trays and Not Larry Sabato have in common?

They define juvenile, i.e., "displaying or suggesting a lack of maturity."

At the risk of being accused of lacking a sense of humor, I have to say that the NLS contest to rate the "hottest" woman candidate or wife of a candidate is demeaning.

The contest equates the women leaders who run for office with the supporting cast of spouses who help men run and reduces both to unwilling beauty queens. The contest diminishes the victories of successful candidates like Anne Crockett-Starke. And, the contest illustrates the double-binds that women who seek to lead confront. Can one be both feminine and competent? See, Women and Leadership: Beyond the Double Binds by Kathleen Hall Jamieson for more on this subject.

Virginia is in the bottom ten of all states in the percentage of women in our legislature. In part, this is because of the double standard women confront when they seek to serve us as part-time citizen legislators. If they are single, they must put up with rumors about their sexuality. If they are attractive, they must put up with rumors about who they are sleeping with. If they have small children, they are attacked for putting themselves first and worst.

Men, e.g., Mark Earley and Bob Marshall, have large families with small children that they left to serve in the legislature without criticism. Yet, Eileen Filler-Corn met a barrage of negative sniping when she sought election to the House of Delegates because she had two school age children at home.

Men don't have to put up with stuff like the NLS contest, or the ongoing running commentary women face regarding their looks, clothing choices, hairstyles, etc., as a price of public service.

No wonder more men than women indicate an interest in running for office. See, Fox, Gender, Political Ambition and the Decision Not to Run for Office at page 5.

Bottom line here for me ...

Grow up, NLS.

Thursday, December 29, 2005

Picture This

Delegate Cole has introduced a bill that would make it legal for a law enforcement officer carrying a concealed weapon to drink alcohol in a restaurant or club but only if he is actually on duty.

Here's what the amended "guns in bars" law would say if Cole's bill is passed:
J3. No person who carries a concealed handgun onto the premises of any restaurant or club as defined in § 4.1-100 for which a license to sell and serve alcoholic beverages for on-premises consumption has been granted by the Virginia Alcoholic Beverage Control Board under Title 4.1 of the Code of Virginia may consume an alcoholic beverage while on the premises; however, nothing herein regarding the consumption of alcohol shall apply to a federal, state, or local law-enforcement officer while actually engaged in the performance of his official duties.


I suppose this is somehow meant to make it legal for undercover police officers to drink while working a case without disarming or violating the law. But, it seems weird that we're passing a law to make it legal for police officers to drink on the job while carrying a concealed gun.

Wednesday, December 28, 2005

"Time and the Art of Living" 3

The new year approaches. Limitless possibilities; things left undone. A beginning; an ending.

Grudin on past and future:

III.20 The past is like the body of time, the future is like its soul. Our sense of the past is voluminous, corporeal, complex; but our sense of the future should hold innocently and simply, like stellar spectrum, the full quality of our spirit and will.


May the new year replenish your spirit and reenergize your will.

Saturday, December 24, 2005

"Time and the Art of Living" 2

The holiday season... time with family ... thoughts about past time ... hope for time yet to come.

Not much time for blogging. So, over the next week or so, I've decided to share more from Robert Grudin's book, "Time and the Art of Living."

As we think about the year past, what we did and might have done, it's important to remember that balance is an important aspect of success in life and in managing time.

Grudin on Achievement and Time:

IX.29 The mind which can totally and inanely forget its work and obligations is often also the mind which can, at the proper time, give them the fullest attention. People of this bent know not only the value of concentration but also the secret resource of fallowness. They protect their fragile hours of productivity with down pillows of oblivion.

I hope that you find some "down pillows of oblivion" on which to rest in the week ahead and beyond.

Friday, December 23, 2005

Questions for the New Attorney General

Richmond's new ezine for women published a revised version of my blog post on questions for the Virginia Attorney General in the December 2005 edition now available online.

Thursday, December 22, 2005

Bacon's Rebellion: Blog the Budget! Executive Offices

Over on Bacon's Rebellion, Jim's asking folks to "blog the budget." Shaun Kenney suggests that we all play "adopt-a-budget" and see if we can find the fat.

I don't know if you'd call it fat or not, but, as noted in my comment on the Executive Office budget, the request for an additional position and more money for the Division of Debt Collection in the Office of the Attorney General deserves a very careful look by the money committees and the new Attorney General.

Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Congresswoman Davis Rewrites Dictionary; Makes Include and Exclude Synonyms

It seems to me that Virginia Congresswoman Jo Ann Davis and others on the anti-holiday bandwagon have merged the meanings of "include" and "exclude" in their efforts to put the "Christ" back in Christmas.

Those of us who use Happy Holidays as a greeting do so to "include," that is, to "accommodate, add, admit, allow for, append, bear, build, build in, carry, combine, comprehend, comprise, consist of, constitute, contain, count, cover, embody, embrace, encircle, enclose, encompass, entail, enter, have, hold, implicate, incorporate, inject, insert, interject, interpolate, introduce, number, number among, receive, subsume, take in, teem with, or work in" everyone who is celebrating this time of year regardless of what they are celebrating.

We are not trying to "exclude" or "ban, bar, bate, blackball, blacklist, block, bounce, boycott, close out, count out, debar, disallow, drive out, eject, eliminate, embargo, estop, evict, except, expel, force out, ignore, interdict, keep out, leave out, lock out, obviate, occlude, omit, ostracize, oust, pass over, preclude, prevent, prohibit, proscribe, put out, refuse, refuse admittance, reject, remove, repudiate, rule out, set aside, shut out, sideline, suspend, throw out, veto, or ward off" Christians who are celebrating Christmas.

No matter what the good Congresswoman says, I'm going to continue to see include and exclude as antonyms, and I'm going to include everyone in my holiday greetings.

And, what's this thing these folks have about the Christmas tree anyway...the history of Christmas trees as a Christian symbol is relatively recent, promoted actively in the US only since the late 1800's and not "universal" as a tradition until the 1920's. A bit of history:

The Egyptians were part of a long line of cultures that treasured and worshipped evergreens. When the winter solstice arrive, they brought green date palm leaves into their homes to symbolize life's triumph over death.

The Romans celebrated the winter solstice with a fest called Saturnalia in honor of Saturnus, the god of agriculture. They decorated their houses with greens and lights and exchanged gifts. They gave coins for prosperity, pastries for happiness, and lamps to light one's journey through life.

Centuries ago in Great Britain, woods priests called Druids used evergreens during mysterious winter solstice rituals. The Druids used holly and mistletoe as symbols of eternal life, and place evergreen branches over doors to keep away evil spirits.

Late in the Middle Ages, Germans and Scandinavians placed evergreen trees inside their homes or just outside their doors to show their hope in the forthcoming spring. Our modern Christmas tree evolved from these early traditions.

Legend has it that Martin Luther began the tradition of decorating trees to celebrate Christmas. One crisp Christmas Eve, about the year 1500, he was walking through snow-covered woods and was struck by the beauty of a group of small evergreens. Their branches, dusted with snow, shimmered in the moonlight. When he got home, he set up a little fir tree indoors so he could share this story with his children. He decorated it with candles, which he lighted in honor of Christ's birth.

The Christmas tree tradition most likely came to the United States with Hessian troops during the American Revolution, or with German immigrants to Pennsylvania and Ohio, adds Robson.

But the custom spread slowly. The Puritans banned Christmas in New England. Even as late as 1851, a Cleveland minister nearly lost his job because he allowed a tree in his church. Schools in Boston stayed open on Christmas Day through 1870, and sometimes expelled students who stayed home.

The Christmas tree market was born in 1851 when Catskill farmer Mark Carr hauled two ox sleds of evergreens into New York City and sold them all. By 1900, one in five American families had a Christmas tree, and 20 years later, the custom was nearly universal.


What's the big deal about including everyone in the magic of the season by calling the tree a holiday tree?

Sometimes me thinks that the gentlelady doth protest too much.

Sunday, December 18, 2005

Ten Keys Revisited

The Sunday before the election, I wrote my analysis of how I thought Sabato's "Ten Keys to the Governor's Mansion" were playing out in the 2005 election cycle.

We haven't yet had the benefit of Sabato's thinking, but I thought I should keep myself honest by looking back at what I said and seeing whether it makes sense viewed in hindsight.

Here's what I see:

On turnout, I was wrong that lower turnout would deliver the election to Kilgore. Kaine won despite the fact that turnout was lower than 2001's 46%. The conventional wisdom (R's do better when turnout is low)was wrong in Kaine's election. The turnout among black voters turns out to have been close to the 15% that Warner did, so the makeup of the lower turnout looks like it was unchanged or tending D compared to 2001.

The "prevailing conditions" (Warner/Virginia heading in the right direction) factor looks to have had a stronger influence on the election that I thought it did. I said it favored Kaine, clearly it was very favorable.

As to the rest of the 10 keys:

1) Economy (Then, neutral; Now, neutral to advantage D)
Dissatisfaction with the economy in some rural parts of the state (like Henry County) helped Kaine, not Kilgore. Overall, though, I still think it was a Neutral factor overall in the election. I do think voters thought that Kaine could do a better job delivering on the issue since more jobs and the economy voters voted for him.

2)Party Unity (then, advantage D; now advantage D)
Turned out to be the advantage for Kaine that I thought it would be.

3) Scandal (then, advantage D; now advantage D)
Turned out to undercut Kilgore as I projected.

4) Campaign Operations (then advantage R; now neutral to advantage D)
Kaine's folks ran a great and technically advanced campaign. The vaunted R machine wasn't. I called this an advantage for R's. Looks like this should have been neutral at best, perhaps even advantage D's.

5) Campaign Money (then advantage R; now advantage R)
Kilgore had the advantage. It didn't end up helping him.

6) Candidate Personality (then neutral; now advantage D)
I called this neutral, probably because I know both guys and think both are genuinely likeable people. However, the Kilgore his campaign presented was not likeable, and the Kaine his campaign ultimately presented was authentic and likeable.
This should have been advantage Kaine.

7) Prior Office Experience (then advantage R; now neutral)
Kilgore did little with his experience, and he wasn't able to get traction on the negatives associated with Kaine's tenure as mayor. I gave the advantage to Kilgore, turned out to be neutral at best.

8) Retrospective Judgment of Previous Governor (then advantage D; now advantage D)
Warner's high positives made this a very strong advantage for Kaine. I got this one right.

9) Presidential popularity (then, advantage D; now advantage D)
I called this one right, too. Bush was a drag on Kilgore's candidacy.

10) Special issues and dominant circumstances (then advantage R; now neutral to advantage D)
Immigration turned out not to have the intensity Kilgore clearly hoped it would. Transportation, which Kilgore should have been able to work to advantage, didn't help him. Kaine's decision to focus on growth and transportation late in the campaign clearly boosted turnout and his vote totals in the exurbs. I called this advantage R. I might have been right in the abstract, but Kaine's team clearly turned this negative into a positive.

Warner Steps Up on Workplace Discrimination

On Friday, Virginia Governor Mark Warner stepped up to the issue of workplace discrimination against gays and lesbians and did the right thing. As the chief personnel officer of the Commonwealth, he included a provision in the state budget he proposed that makes clear that Virginia's equal opportunity policy covers sexual orientation. Then, he reissued his own executive order No. 1 to declare that Virginia's "firm and unwavering policy ... to assure equal opportunity in all facets of state government" forbids discrimination based on sexual orientation.

According to the HRC
, Virginia joins 25 other states and 420 of the Fortune 500 companies that have nondiscrimination policies.

In a competitive employment environment, Warner's policy decision makes good sense for Virginia and Virginia taxpayers who want the best and the brightest working in state government and at our public colleges and universities.

The Richmond Times Dispatch reports today that a fight (led by who else? Bob Marshall) is already brewing on this small step forward for fairness.

But, really, how controversial can this be when, as the TD reports, Speaker of the House Bill Howell is "among 84 Republican and Democratic legislators who signed a pledge with Equality Virginia, a gay-rights lobbying organization that pressed Warner for the ban, to prohibit discrimination in their offices."

Tim Kaine's spokeswoman has said that Kaine's Executive Order 1 will continue to prohibit discrimination in state government based on sexual orientation.

People of right reason should get ready to respond, though, when Marhall and others try to strip the langugage from the budget bill and pass legislation to prohibit the Governor from extending this protection to workers by Executive Order.

The Data Confirms Common Sense Analysis of the Election Results

Jeff Schapiro's column today revealing some of the Kaine post-election poll results confirms what those not playing Republican bubble boy know by intuition, talking with folks, listening to what non-wonks have to say ...

independents and moderates made the difference in the governor's race.

And, they really didn't like the negative ads used by Kilgore (especially the death penalty ads).

Can we revisit whether negative campaigning "works"?

Wednesday, November 23, 2005

Gratitude

Interesting word gratitude.

If you look it up in Roget's Thesaurus, you find synomyms that carry both a sense of blessing and an implied quid pro quo.

Benediction, grace, tribute, appreciation and, perhaps, recognition ... things given without expectation.

Acknowledgement, thanks, response, obligation, requital ... offered in return for a thing received or expected.

As I count my blessings tomorrow and think about what it means to be grateful ... to give thanks ... to express gratitude ... I'll be thinking about when and why I've been thankful without expectation or without receiving something ...

when gratitude has been a benediction or grace...

offered freely ...

without gain expected or received.

And, if I can find an image/memory/feeling of that time, I hope that I can hold on to it and find ways to connect with it again and again ... living in gratitude for its own sake without obligation or requital.

Happy Thanksgiving

Friday, November 18, 2005

So you want to run for office

This month RichmondWOMAN magazine goes from print to ezine. The new edition just hit the electronic news stand. My Government Matters column this month is titled, "So You Want to Run for Office: 5 Questions Every Woman Must Ask Herself Before She Runs for Office." Find out about the rule of 75, the torque factor, and the "buy me, buy me" test ... all important considerations for any woman thinking about elective office.

And, do think seriously about running. Virginia has stayed too long in the bottom ten of all states in the number of women in our state legislature. You can be a part of moving us from follower to leader. Women who run can and do win!

Thursday, November 17, 2005

McDonnell's Transition Team

Following up on my post about Kilgore's failure to lead with inclusion during his 4 years as Attorney General, the announcement of McDonnell's transition team doesn't inspire confidence that he will do better.

Here's the list:

Steve Rosenthal (AG in the year following Terry's resignation to run for Governor)

Richard Cullen (AG in the year following Gilmore's resignation to run for Governor; former Assistant US Attorney)

Frank Atkinson (Counsel to Governor Allen)

Randy Beales (AG in the year following Earley's resignation to run for Governor)

Paul Harris (former member House of Delegates)

Ken Stolle (current Senator from Virginia Beach; chair of Senate Courts)

Dave Albo (current member House of Delegates from Springfield; likely new chair of House Courts)

Eileen Addison (York County Commonwealth's Attorney)

One African American, one woman. This even though nearly half of all law students (from whence future office recruits will come) are women.

One hopes that the leadership and senior staff who McDonnell chooses to run the AG's office, if he is confirmed as the winning candidate following a recount, will be more diverse and look more like Virginia and the make up of the available lawyers and public administrators from which he could choose.

Disclosure: As reflected in my profile, I have been a consultant to the Deeds campaign and I am serving on his recount team. I was also Steve Rosenthal's chief deputy AG.

Wednesday, November 16, 2005

"Time and the Art of Living"

"Time and the Art of Living" by Robert Grudin is a book that I turn to periodically for inspiration/meditation/humility. Called a "modern classic" by Richard Selzer, the book is about time in many dimensions, including the politics of time and growth and age. Whether I'm moved to pick up the book by sadness (as in the death of my mother or life threatening illness of a friend) or by frustration with events or the challenges of daily life, I always find something to think about ... an insight to savor ... a challenge to live "better."

Today I awoke thinking about the "lessons" in this election, and the book opened to this entry:

XII.16 In the heat of action, the mere ability to remember our principles, our goals and the specific reasoning behind the course we have taken is an element of courage. Memory is fear's first victim.


"Memory" took some serious hits in this campaign cycle. One hopes that those we have elected will have "courage" as they move from campaigning to governing.

Tuesday, November 15, 2005

Is it too early for New Year's Resolutions?

Certainly not if Christmas decorations are up before Halloween, and definitely not if you're asked by INC. magazine if you have any you'd like to submit for possible publication in their January issue.

So, I was asked, and here's what I said my resolutions are for this year:

"To get the hundreds of business cards sitting in a box in my office scanned into my contact manager."

"To synchronize my passions and my pocketbook."

"To teach my 5 nieces about the time value of money."

"To live the reality that time, like money, must be budgeted."

"To blog daily."

"To truly live each day as if it were my last."

At least as to one of these, you'll be able to judge how I do.

Monday, November 07, 2005

Reading the Cross Tabs; Survey USA Updated Tonight Prior to Bush Visit

There's an interesting picture that emerges from the cross tabs of the surveys conducted by SurveyUSA since August. Each of the polls reflects different projections about the makeup of the electorate, reports data based on widely varying numbers of likely voters (568 to 804), and estimates the margin of error differently (from a high of 4.2% down to 3.5%). The increase in the number of "likely" voters in the sample reflects the fact that as the election gets closer more registered voters called by the firm identify themselves as "likely" voters.

In August, the SurveyUSA poll projected that African American voters would make up 17% of the electorate -- a wildly optimistic assumption given the fact that only Doug Wilder has generated that kind of turnout among African American voters (he got 17% to Warner's 15%). By this past weekend's poll, the portion of the turnout projected to be made up of African Americans had fallen to 13%.

The good news for Kaine is that, from the poll conducted August 6-8 to the poll conducted November 04-06, his winning margin went up even as the projected proportion of black voters fell -- from 5 points behind in the first week in August to 9 points ahead in the calls made November 04-06. Kilgore's support among African American voters, consistent with that garnered by Gilmore and Allen -- in the range of 16-18%, remained static while Kaine's rose from a low of 70% to a high of 79%.

The bad news for Kaine in the updated SurveyUSA numbers published tonight is that the momentum seems to be moving in Kilgore's direction. Averaging calls made Saturday, Sunday and Monday, SurveyUSA now projects Kaine as having a lead of only 5%. Here's what SurveyUSA reported tonight about the polling trends over the weekend:

Interviews in the Virginia governor's race conducted by SurveyUSA tonight Monday 11/7 (but before President Bush appeared in Richmond) show a swing back towards Republican candidate Jerry Kilgore, causing SurveyUSA to now update its final projection in the Virginia Governor's Contest. This morning, based on interviews conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday (11/4/05 through 11/6/05), SurveyUSA released data that showed Democrat Tim Kaine 9 points ahead of Kilgore. However, because of intra-day volatility in that data, SurveyUSA continued to poll throughout the afternoon and evening today Monday 11/7. When interviews from the most recent 3 days -- Saturday, Sunday and today Monday -- are averaged, Kaine's lead shrinks now to 5 points. When interviews from just the past two days -- Sunday and today Monday -- are averaged, the contest is closer yet. When interviews from Monday only are considered, the contest is tied, but the Margin of Sampling error from just the one day of interviewing is high enough, and the results aberrant enough, that SurveyUSA is uncomfortable reporting just Monday-only data. For the record, SurveyUSA goes into the clubhouse with its final projection (based on Saturday, Sunday and Monday polling): Kaine 50%, Kilgore 45%. A closer outcome still is possible.


Turnout clearly remains key, and the SurveyUSA data reveal three key issues that, in addition to the pro-Kilgore momentum, could render Kaine's projected margin illusory.

First, there appears to be a general lack of enthusiasm in the African American community for Kaine's candidacy. African American voters could make up as little as 10% of the electorate.

Second, to ensure victory, Kaine needs to get closer to the 90% of the African American vote that Warner received.

Third, much of Kaine's projected lead is reflected in the rising gender gap. In August, Kaine held a lead among women of only 3%. In the most recent poll, his lead among women had risen to 16%. But, turnout rates for women voters in Virginia are notoriously low -- 33rd out of the 50 states. It's not clear that Kaine's candidacy has the emotional torque necessary to get women to the polls tomorrow, particularly in NOVA, where multi-tasking women need a compelling reason to get them to the polls.

With Republicans using dirty tricks to depress turnout, particularly among Democratic women (e.g., calls using Kaine's voice and negative literature made to look like it came from Potts), Kaine will need the best GOTV program ever mounted by a Democratic candidate in Virginia to win tomorrow.